After hours today, Apple is set to announce earnings for the most recent fiscal quarter. And for me, month after month after month of seeing Apple stock go up, without my being involved, ends now. While I still believe the stock is highly priced, it seems that there are enough investors out there to push the price ever higher, and so long as that is true, it's a worthwhile investment.

Apple has some incredible momentum behind it. The iPhone is an unqualified hit, even with the AT&T boat anchor holding it back. Microsoft continues to make missteps, around Windows Vista, around MSN Live Search, and around the Zune. Apple is days away from introducing Leopard, the latest iteration of the company's rock-solid Mac OS. And market share continues to climb.

I've been wrong on AAPL before, in the short term, but looking at my eTrade records, no stock has more reliably made me money in just about every trade over the last three to four years. A look at the chart in this post shows why. Apple stock has outpaced just about every technology stock out there, and doesn't show much sign of slowing down. I only wish I had been even less diversified than I already am, and had put it all on Apple in the first place, best practices be damned.

Today, I just might roll the dice and take my chances. We'll see by this afternoon if that was the right choice.

Microsoft is still number one in some major elements of the computer industry, without a doubt. It's number one in consumer operating systems and number one in enterprise operating systems. The company sells the number one office suite, has the number one position in Web browser software, just saw the XBox 360 beat Nintendo's Wii in the most recent month, thanks to the release of Halo 3, and undoubtedly is a major force in many other areas I haven't mentioned.

But over the last ten years, especially over the last five, the company's momentum has been overshadowed by some extremely nimble, innovative, companies, like Apple and Google. The company hasn't made much headway outside of its core businesses, with public failures of MSN, Live Search, and Vista, to name a few. The old status quo where every startup in the Valley was afraid to compete with Microsoft has been eclipsed with a new realization that not only can you beat Microsoft, but instead, it's Google that might end up being the 800 pound gorilla who could be your greatest partner or your greatest enemy.

Some of the very best blogging on Microsoft comes from two sources who have grown increasingly frustrated with the company's direction, and have seen their skepticism grow as the company continues to just tread water, quarter after quarter, watching as the latest buzz comes from Cupertino, Mountain View, or a gaggle of startups that have Microsoft begging just to be associated with - like Facebook, or prior to the acquisition, YouTube.

The first, Mini-Microsoft, plainly says the company has grown too large to lead in this new economy, asking for the Redmond monolith to scale down and simplify. The second, MSFTextrememakeover, looks at the situation from that of a shareholder, and the answer is not pretty.

Putting one's money in Microsoft stock for the last year, five years or ten years has been as close to a dead end as you can find. While it hasn't evaporated, the aforementioned Apple and Google have seen their stocks skyrocket.


All stock detail sourced: Google Finance | (Table: Apple's Keynote)

The difference is dramatic. That's why MSFTextrememakeover is asking this week: What If Microsoft wasn't a screwup? I think it's more than just screwing up. Microsoft once had a culture of aggressive tooth and nail competition and winning at all costs. Many antitrust suits later, with much of the old blood having moved on to newer, shinier things, the company has lost the competitive edge it once had. It's one thing to be huge, and quite another to be good.

Additionally, in order to be taken seriously as a stock or as a company, investors have to believe in the management and its direction. Bill Gates has lessened his influence on the company, working more on non-profits than for-profits. And Steve Ballmer doesn't have the credibility and the ability to inspire employees and customers the way Steve Jobs, Sergey Brin and Larry Page have. It could be time for a change there, as Microsoft looks more and more like yesterday's IBM than tomorrow's Google. The question is, is the company broken, and can it be saved?

Recently, Ballmer was seen saying the company would buy upwards of 20 startups a year with the company's cash horde. But truth is, smart startups don't want to be part of Microsoft. That's yesterday's story. Now, they want to be part of Apple or Google, or part of Facebook, if there's a match. There have been stories of Microsoft's richer offers being refused. And it runs contrary to Mini-Microsoft's hope for the company to focus and slim down before getting even larger.

If I wanted to stop using Microsoft software altogether, I could do it. I wrote this post on Google's Blogger, running on Apple's Safari browser, on Mac OS X. I edited the above graphic in Adobe Photoshop, after making it in Apple Keynote. The need to run Microsoft software is now gone, as companies move to the Web, and open source alternatives become a very real reality. Innovative companies win through having an edge and differentiation, and I strongly believe Microsoft's edge has dulled. Without significant change in leadership and focus, things are going to get a lot worse for the company before they get a lot better.

In my youth, my favorite sports teams seemingly challenged every year. The 49ers won Super Bowl after Super Bowl. The Oakland A's were in the World Series from 1988 to 1990, taking the title in 1989. Before I liked the Sacramento Kings, I liked the LA Lakers, and saw Magic Johnson and Kareem Abdul Jabbar take home their share of championships. But for nearly two decades, as fans from across the country have celebrated their teams, at least for one season, I'm growing fatigued of seeing my hopes for a pennant - in any sport - fade early.

Yesterday, Cal, once expected to challenge for a BCS berth, got dumped on by the UCLA Bruins in Los Angeles, going down to their second straight defeat after a season opening run to the #2 ranking in all the country. Now, the team will be lucky just to find its way to the unrewarding and poorly named Holiday Bowl in San Diego.

This disaster comes only months after the Oakland A's played their way into near last place in the AL West, avoiding the playoffs, which itself was preceded by a season-long funk by the Sacramento Kings. While the Kings' season is on the verge of opening up, I don't harbor any misguided belief that the team's fortunes will change.

As for the 49ers? First of all, as I've made clear before, I don't really care enough for their wins or losses to make much difference. But the truth is, they still stink. I came home from church this afternoon to see them completing yet another weak showing, as they lost 33-15 to the New York Giants.

A friend of mine says he knows not to jump on to a bandwagon unless he's absolutely certain they will win. I can't do that. I can cheer for the Rockies' improbable run to the World Series, but it's a hollow cheer. I can't root for the Cal Bears to find a way to finish with less than 4 losses. I had higher expectations. And what am I supposed to ask of the A's next year? A record above .500? How can I accept that as a real goal?

I'm not switching the teams I root for just because it's become so inconvenient to see them lose and lose after teasing me into thinking they had a chance. But I would like to be positively surprised for a change. Soon.

This morning, while making a comment on Steven Hodson's WinExtra blog, a little note caught my eye: Listening to: Underworld - Oblivion with Bells - Crocodile. His blog software will imprint the song he's listening to, but for me, an avowed Underworld afficionado, to not know of this song, was outlandish. I demanded to know where he got it. His answer: iTunes. Duh. Stupid me.

On October 16th, Underworld released a new album, Oblivion With Bells, into the iTunes Music Store, and I had gone an entire 48 hours without knowing. After seeing the world-renowned group in concert twice, and owning virtually all their previous albums, this was a virtual call to arms.

I don't really need to tell you what I did next - I downloaded it. And I'm listening now. The songs are back into the classic Underworld sound - electronically altered vocals, catchy rhythms, and haunting intermixing of sounds, loops and unique lyrics.

After 2002's A Hundred Days Off, which had a pair of excellent songs, and more pedestrian tracks, I can only hope this one is as engaging as the epic Dubnobasswithmyheadman, Underworld and Beucoup Fish, which led my musical library through college and shortly thereafter.

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