October 22, 2007

Ready to Gamble on Apple Earnings Today

After hours today, Apple is set to announce earnings for the most recent fiscal quarter. And for me, month after month after month of seeing Apple stock go up, without my being involved, ends now. While I still believe the stock is highly priced, it seems that there are enough investors out there to push the price ever higher, and so long as that is true, it's a worthwhile investment.

Apple has some incredible momentum behind it. The iPhone is an unqualified hit, even with the AT&T boat anchor holding it back. Microsoft continues to make missteps, around Windows Vista, around MSN Live Search, and around the Zune. Apple is days away from introducing Leopard, the latest iteration of the company's rock-solid Mac OS. And market share continues to climb.

I've been wrong on AAPL before, in the short term, but looking at my eTrade records, no stock has more reliably made me money in just about every trade over the last three to four years. A look at the chart in this post shows why. Apple stock has outpaced just about every technology stock out there, and doesn't show much sign of slowing down. I only wish I had been even less diversified than I already am, and had put it all on Apple in the first place, best practices be damned.

Today, I just might roll the dice and take my chances. We'll see by this afternoon if that was the right choice.

4 comments:

  1. Sorry for the slight tangent here Louis, but as a rabid iPhone fan, I have to say the thing holding me back from really enjoying it is Apple, not AT&T. I've had several support issues and AT&T customer service has been exemplary, which really surprised me. My contacts with Apple have not been so good. Actually, let me restate that. My contacts with Apple have been awful.

    Gal

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  2. I get worried about the irrational exuberance of the AAPL-boosters, myself. I've made more money on AAPL than I've ever spent on Apple gear, and that's just since the last iPhone bounce! But still here's AAPL again, this time lifting all of Wall Street, according to news reports. I'm going to hold my stock this time, but I'm really nervous about the "numbers were not as amazingly great as I thought they would be" rebound I expect tomorrow...

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  3. Full transparency:

    110 shares * ($183.7 - $170.15) = $1,490.5 profit.

    I have the attention span of a gnat.

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  4. That'll buy you a nice 20" iMac and leave some for software... ;)

    Still, it's sales like that that'll drag the price down in early trading tomorrow morning!

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